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I would expect XtraBackup to work with MariaDB Server 10.1, except when page_compressed or encrypted tables are present.
With MariaDB Server 10.2, I would expect some trouble due to MDEV-12289. MySQL 5.7 changed the transaction system format in such a way that an upgrade from earlier versions can be affected.
MariaDB 10.2 with MDEV-12289 fixed will allow upgrade from earlier MariaDB and MySQL versions. Xtrabackup contains some logic that will handle undo log records, and it is possible that this logic is compatible with the MySQL 5.7 format but not the earlier format. I am not aware of related failures, but I have also not tested it.
The crash-downgrade protection required by the undo log format change related to MDEV-13564 will prevent XtraBackup from working.
XtraBackup never worked with MariaDB Server 10.3, because the redo log format (and identifier) was changed.
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